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Abstract

Climate change is predicted to intensify extreme weather events, leading to prolonged dry seasons and reduced rainfall in Amazônia. This, coupled with human-induced ignition, can increase wildfires’ frequency across the region. We investigated the spatial and temporal changes in the dry season extent and intensity across Amazonia from 2000 to 2023. Using precipitation and multiple evapotranspiration datasets, Maximum Cumulative Water Deficit (MCWD) and dry season length were calculated. Highlights include increasing frequency, severity and spatial extent of droughts since 2010, with 2023 marking the largest affected area (68%), and  2016 with largest water deficit. Overall, the increasing frequency of extreme droughts in Amazônia raises concerns about the rainforest's long-term resilience and heightened fire risk.Climate change is predicted to intensify extreme weather events, leading to prolonged dry seasons and reduced rainfall in Amazônia. This, coupled with human-induced ignition, can increase wildfires’ frequency across the region. We investigated the spatial and temporal changes in the dry season extent and intensity across Amazonia from 2000 to 2023. Using precipitation and multiple evapotranspiration datasets, Maximum Cumulative Water Deficit (MCWD) and dry season length were calculated. Highlights include increasing frequency, severity and spatial extent of droughts since 2010, with 2023 marking the largest affected area (68%), and  2016 with largest water deficit. Overall, the increasing frequency of extreme droughts in Amazônia raises concerns about the rainforest's long-term resilience and heightened fire risk.

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Institutions
  • 1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
  • 2 Nature-based Insights, Oxford, UK
  • 3 INPE
  • 4 Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
  • 5 Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais da Amazônia, Brasília, Brazil
  • 6 University of Exeter
  • 7 CEMADEN
Track
  • 21. Climate change
Keywords
Climate change
Water deficit
MCWD
Precipitation
Remote sensing