NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY: TIME-SERIES APPROACH TO EVALUATE THE COMPLEXITY OF LEPTOSPIROSIS FORECAST IN RIO GRANDE DO SUL

Leptospirosis is a bacterial disease transmitted when mucosa or skin with exposed wounds of a susceptible person comes into contact with the urine of contaminated rodents and other hosts including farm animals. It is endemic in Brazil, and its incidence is strongly associated with humid climates. From 2007 to June 2024, the disease occurrence was highly concentrated in the southern part of the country, with the state of Rio Grande do Sul reporting 38% of the cases. In this study, the occurrence of leptospirosis per municipality was analysed in terms of its complexity and its correlation with relevant environmental variables, i.e., rainfall and temperature. Then, leptospirosis prediction models were classified according to their level of complexity. The results show a concentration of regions that could potentially be used for outbreak prediction modelling, interestingly overlapping with areas vulnerable to flooding.