LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS IN PRIORITY AREAS FOR FOREST CONSERVATION UNDER THE ATLANTIC FOREST

Global changes in land use/land cover (LULC) have negatively impacted hydric ecosystem services. We modeled future LULC scenarios for an agricultural basin within the Atlantic Forest using the DINAMICA EGO model to address this. Two scenarios were produced for 2050: the first based on historical LULC maps from 2008, 2013, and 2023, and the second incorporating priority areas for forest conservation, particularly hydric Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs) defined by Brazilian law 12651/2012. The first scenario projects a continued pattern of agricultural expansion and deforestation. However, the second scenario, focusing on high-priority PPAs, shows that targeted actions in these areas could reduce deforestation by nearly 3.5% by 2050, compared to projections without intervention. These findings highlight the importance of conservation efforts in priority regions, demonstrating that proactive actions can significantly influence the future extent of native forest cover and support the long-term provision of ecosystem services in the basin.