Multicriteria Model for Choice Support in Aircraft Modernization Projects

Defense systems modernization projects involve complex decisions, marked by operational, technological, and regulatory constraints. In this work, a multicriteria decision support model is proposed for prioritizing actions in the face of risks in modernization programs. 22 alternatives were evaluated based on nine criteria, covering aspects such as strategic alignment, technological readiness and implementation complexity. The weights of the criteria were obtained using the SMARTER method, using the Rank Order Centroid (ROC) from an ordering of the constants of the scale used. To analyze the robustness of the results, 10,000 repetitions of a Monte Carlo simulation were performed with variation in the weights of the criteria. The model allowed the identification of stable alternatives that are consistent with organizational objectives, proving to be a useful tool to support decisions in uncertain environments and high technical complexity.