A Stochastic Optimization Model for the Sugarcane Production Chain with Focus on Biofuels

This study addresses the optimization of the sugarcane production chain, a promising raw material for renewable energy, in order to maximize economic and environmental benefits. A stochastic optimization model was developed to determine investments in industrial plants and their operations, considering uncertainties in the availability of biomass and in the prices of bioproducts.

The model, formulated in two stages - investment decisions and operations - and solved through Benders decomposition, was applied to the Brazilian context with realistic data. The results indicate that investments in plants producing sugar, first-generation ethanol, electricity, biomethane, bio-oil, biochar and carbon credits are economically viable. Total annuities were estimated at $51.7 million, with an average operating cost of $117 million and an average revenue of $445.53 million, highlighting sugar as the primary source of revenue.