Big-green fruit traits predict red-ripe performance in acerola

Early phenotyping may improve acerola breeding by identifying traits that can be reliably assessed before full fruit maturity. This study investigated whether fruit quality at the big-green stage predicts red-ripe performance in 35 acerola (Malpighia emarginata DC.) genotypes evaluated over two production cycles in a randomized complete block design with three blocks. Fruit diameter, mass, firmness, soluble solids (SS), titratable acidity (TA), SS/TA ratio, and ascorbic acid (AA) were evaluated. Genotypic values were predicted by REML/BLUP separately for each maturity stage. Relationships between stages were assessed using correlations, coefficients of determination, and coincidence among the top 20% of genotypes. Strong associations were observed for SS/TA (r = 0.893; R² = 0.797), mass (r = 0.866; R² = 0.750), TA (r = 0.860; R² = 0.740), SS (r = 0.826; R² = 0.683), and diameter (r = 0.797; R² = 0.635). Top-ranked genotype coincidence reached 85.7% for mass, diameter, and SS/TA and 71.4% for TA. Firmness showed a weaker association (r = 0.363; R² = 0.132). Although AA was moderately correlated between stages (r = 0.655), only 28.6% of top-ranked genotypes coincided. Cross-cycle validation supported early prediction for mass, diameter, TA, and SS/TA, whereas firmness, SS, and AA were less consistent. Thus, early phenotyping is trait-dependent, with mass and SS/TA showing the greatest potential to anticipate red-ripe genotype performance.