Mapping Environmental Vulnerabilities: A GIS-MCDA Approach in the Arc of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon

This study analyzes the relationship between soy expansion and environmental changes in the Arc of Amazonian Deforestation, combining Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). 20 municipalities (soy producers and non-producers) were evaluated between 2000 and 2023, considering rainfall, deforestation and GDP. Using multicriteria methods and data from INPE, IBGE and ANA, the results revealed greater environmental vulnerability in producing municipalities, such as Santana do Araguaia (0.614) and Santa Maria das Barreiras (0.401). The spatial analysis identified a correlation between critical areas and intensive deforestation in the northeast of the Arc. Surprisingly, non-producing municipalities (e.g., Marabá, 0.758) also showed high vulnerability, indicating the influence of factors beyond agriculture. The MCDA-GIS integration has shown effectiveness in mapping risks and territorial dynamics, providing the basis for policies that balance economic development and environmental preservation in the Amazon.