QUANTIFYING PRODUCTION IMPACTS DUE TO DISPOSAL INFRASTRUCTURE UNCERTAINTY IN MINING: A LINEAR PROGRAMMING AND SIMULATION APPROACH

This study presents an integrated approach combining linear programming and Monte Carlo simulation to quantify the impact of disposal infrastructure uncertainty on long-term mining production. By incorporating probabilistic representations of infrastructure availability and operational constraints, the methodology provides a more realistic assessment of production risks compared to traditional deterministic planning.

The results indicate a total impact of 66.67 Mt of ROM, mainly concentrated in the short term, with critical periods reaching failure probabilities of up to 100%. This corresponds to an estimated financial impact between US$ 2.7 billion and US$ 4.4 billion, evidencing the economic relevance of such uncertainties.

The findings demonstrate that neglecting disposal constraints can significantly overestimate production capacity and project value, reinforcing the importance of probabilistic and constraint-aware approaches in mining planning.