PREDICTION OF CURRENT AND FUTURE POTENTIAL CULTIVATION AND CONSERVATION AREAS OF COYOL (ACROCOMIA ACULEATA) IN MEXICO USING ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELS

In recent years, the Coyol palm (Acrocomia aculeata) has gained prominence in Mexico as an alternative for vegetable oil production due to its high yield and quality. Although it is a native species with widespread distribution in the country, its populations are declining and it is classified as endangered, primarily due to overexploitation for the production of the beverage Taberna. The commercial cultivation of Coyol could meet the demand for both Taberna and oil, while simultaneously protecting native populations from overexploitation. In this study, the current and future ecological niche of the species was modeled to define conservation strategies and identify potential areas for its cultivation. Occurrence data from GBIF and 19 bioclimatic variables were used. The MaxEnt algorithm was employed to model the current ideal habitat and project it for 2070. The data were split into 5 parts, with 75% used to train the model and 25% for validation. The results showed the model was accurate (AUC=0.936). The most influential bioclimatic variables were: mean temperature of the warmest quarter, maximum temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and minimum temperature of the coldest month. The current potential habitat of Coyol was identified in the lowland areas of the Sierra Madre Occidental and Sierra Madre Oriental, the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and the northern Yucatán Peninsula, areas that are currently suitable for its cultivation. However, the projection for 2070 shows a significant reduction in this habitat. Although the lowlands of both Sierras will continue to offer potential habitat, a decrease in extent is observed, and in the Yucatán Peninsula, a total loss of suitable habitat for its cultivation or natural distribution is projected. These results will be crucial for defining conservation, management, and cultivation strategies for the species.