How human activities and climate conditions are affecting the Amazon's carbon emissions

The Amazon has been changing in recent decades, and previously preserved regions that did not suffer from climate change are beginning to feel the effects of climate stress. Four regions in the Amazon were studied, representing, northeast (SAN 2.9˚S 55.0˚W), southeast (ALF 8.8˚S 56.8˚W), southwest (RBA 9.4˚S 67.6˚W) and northwest (2010 -2012: TAB 6.0˚S 70.1˚W; 2013-2021: TEF 3.4˚S 65.6˚W; 2022: CZS 7.0˚S, 72.5˚W). These 4 regions present different amount of deforestation and climate conditions. Here we will present the correlations between carbon fluxes with climate parameters and related human activities variables. The carbon fluxes calculated from CO₂ concentrations in 893 vertical profiles over the four Amazon regions were considered for this work from 2010 to 2022. At each region it was considered 156 months of Total C Flux (TCF), Fire C Flux (FCF) and NBE (Net Biome Exchange, NBE = TCF – FCF), and the climate parameters (precipitation, temperature, maximum temperature, and amplitude (Tmax – Tmin), EVI, VPD and GRACE), and for the human activity as deforestation, biomass burning and degradation. The correlations can explain the drivers for carbon emissions and how each region is impacted by the human activities and climate change. Among the climatic variables that most influence carbon fluxes are the increase in temperature and the reduction in precipitation, and these results indicate that climate stress has affected carbon emissions. This work aims to present equations correlating the carbon fluxes and all studied variables, based on 13 years of data.