Counteracting Climate Change: How Land Cover Shifts Regulate Temperature in the Vulnerable ABoVE Domain

Understanding the climatic effects of land cover and land use change (LCLUC) is critical for comprehending land-atmosphere interactions and informing land management strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study utilized the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) to investigate how LCLUC influenced regional climate in the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) core domain, a region highly susceptible to climate change. We re-parameterized land surface conditions in CESM2 using remotely-sensed land cover maps from 1984 and 2014, then conducted two 40-year experiments with the land-atmosphere coupled component to simulate the respective time periods.

Comparison with observational data confirmed the simulations' validity for the ABoVE domain. Results demonstrated that LCLUC, particularly net forest loss, significantly altered regional climate between 1984 and 2014. Spring and annual average temperatures decreased by over 1°C in some areas, while precipitation slightly decreased by more than 10 mm locally in spring, autumn, and annual averages. The cooling effect from forest cover changes counteracted the warming effect of climate change, regulating temperatures in the Arctic and boreal regions. Further analysis revealed this cooling reduced local ecosystem photosynthesis activity.

This study addresses a critical gap in understanding LCLUC-atmosphere interactions' effects on ecosystem productivity at regional scales, highly relevant to the conference's focus on the global carbon cycle across spatial and temporal scales. The findings provide valuable insights for ongoing efforts to mitigate human perturbations of the climate system and support sustainability transformations, aligning with the conference's goals. By fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, engaging societal partners, and stimulating curiosity-driven research, this work contributes to the scientific knowledge base needed to implement the Paris Agreement and inform the next IPCC assessment report. It offers a timely contribution to the conference's aim of developing intellectual frameworks for decarbonization and climate stabilization.