SPATIAL MOBILITY PATTERNS OF THE POPULATION

The conceptual complexity of integrating the dimensions of space, time, movement, and intentionality – elements that interact as causes and mutual consequences of both spatial mobility and social vulnerabilities – makes this debate, still under construction, a challenge. The scarcity of empirical data that confirms the relationship between spatial mobility and social vulnerabilities is a challenge in the demographic field due to the lack of specific data on population segments exposed to social threats and risks, as well as the capacity for response. Since the 2000s, qualitative studies have pointed to significant changes in demographic migration trends, as well as intra-urban and intra-municipal mobility, when compared to the predominant flows in the second half of the 20th century in Brazil, with a predominance of women and short distances. However, the absence of longitudinal quantitative data has, until now, prevented the validation of these hypotheses. Using data available in the Brazilian Federal Government's Cadastro Único (CadÚnico) administrative database, a longitudinal study was conducted over a 10-year period to identify the profile of the migrant population and empirical evidence showing the relationship between spatial mobility and sociodemographic characteristics, allowing for the tracing of migration patterns. Because it is an administrative database, statistical treatment was applied, using methods to measure data accuracy, including the Whippe Index, the Mayers Index , and the Kruskal -Wallis test , with favorable results. The Rogers and Castro model of age-related migration patterns was adopted, based on ages in adulthood and the end of productive years. The limitations of the CadÚnico database arise mainly from two situations. The first concerns the updating of registration data according to regulations, that is, within a two-year period, which does not always happen, mainly because it depends on the institutional capacity of the municipalities. The second scientific limitation refers to the possibility of typing errors, since the data is filled out manually, especially in regions with poor internet access networks. To overcome such errors, the researcher needs to validate the information by cross-referencing variables, preferably in a longitudinal version. The geographical focus was the subnational state of Minas Gerais due to its geographical confluence within the country's continental space and because of indicators from the 2010 Census showing a trend of return migration to that subnational state. Among the results, the study showed a trend between the demographic phenomena of spatial mobility and the reduction in the fertility rate acting as a selective determinant. The study also contributed to the proposal of a typology of spatial mobility, whose data pointed to a reversal of migratory flows such as rural-urban migration, within a context of industrial deconcentration in the country. The proposal fills a gap in the demographic field by providing evidence on the spatial movement of low-income families with timeliness, as well as factors related to the profile of this population segment exposed to social vulnerabilities.