Simulação de cenários prospectivos de escoamento superficial associados ao uso e cobertura da terra na sub-bacia do rio Capivara, Botucatu-SP por meio de Modelagem Espacial Dinâmica

The hydric erosion is considered as one of the most serious problems related to hydric resources conservation. Hence the need for prediction mechanisms made with the aid of modeling. There are several methodological approaches with the objective of modeling the erosive potential of a given region, among which there are those that analyze and evaluate several landscape variables based on an integrated approach. The objective of this paper was to elaborate a spatial dynamic modeling for monitoring and predicting silting-up processes based on the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSLE) in the Capivara river watershed, city of Botucatu-SP, using a Cellular Automata approach, in the Dinamica EGO plataform. The model was driven by orbital Landsat 5 TM imagery used for mapping the land use and land cover for 1987, 1997, and 2007, topographic maps issued, the software ENVI 4.7and ArcGIS 10. Among the reached results, we shed light over land use and land cover and erosion maps produced for 1987, 1997 and 2007 with prospective scenarios for 2017. It was noticed an increasing in potential volumes of erosion overall the areas of drainage and cuesta related to a decreasing of bushes class in this regions. Considering the downstream regions, it was observed a decreasing of values related to erosion scenarios, overall by the replacement of grasslands by reforesting and citrus along the analyzed period (1987-2017). It shows clearly that land use and land cover changes influence directly in sediment yield in the watershed, and can be simulated with probabilistic scenarios.