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Desmatamento da Amazônia: O DETER pode ser utilizado como preditor das taxas anuais de desmatamento geradas pelo PRODES?

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The National Institute for Space Research- INPE, developed two operational systems to monitor deforestation in the Legal Amazon: PRODES and DETER. PRODES is an annual inventory of primary forest loss and is based on Landsat image analysis, its main objective is to estimate the annual rate of deforestation. DETER provides daily Alert of deforestation and forest degradation for law enforcement based on MODIS sensor images. Although these systems have been developed to meet different goals, a frequent question arises about the possibility of predicting the PRODES rate based on DETER data. Considering this question, a regression analysis was developed combining DETER data, aggregated for a period of one year, and the annual rate produced by PRODES, for the period of 2005 to 2016. The regression analysis resulted in a high coefficient of determination of 0.87, and in an average error estimated of 18.5%. However, the error can be larger. In 2015, the PRODES rate was overestimated in 40.7%. This result shows that the use of the regression to estimate deforestation rate has to be done carefully. Despite of it, DETER data can be used as a predictor of PRODES trends for the Legal Amazon extent, with the data aggregated on an annual basis. In the analyzes of the states, the results varied and DETER showed to be good at predicting rates for Mato Grosso state, with a coefficient of determination of 0.95, but it wasn´t good at predicting deforestation rates for Pará state, with coefficient of determination of 0.55.