Análise espaço-temporal dos extremos de precipitação para o estado do Espírito Santo
Among the main global climate change characteristics is the increase of the extreme weather events, mainly related to unusual droughts and heavy rainfall, which causes huge social and economic damages. In this context, the development of techniques that can help identify risk areas and contribute to the mitigation of the impacts is of substantial value for the planning actions of monitoring and reduction of injuries. The aims of this work were to analyze the space-time distribution of the variables controlling the magnitude for extreme precipitations of the State of Espírito Santo, to represent them in several scenarios of return period and to point out the uncertainties generated by the indicator kriging to the probability distribution function. The results showed that the distribution curve of the probability density functions generated increases drastically in the 1 to 10 years period and later stabilizes. The uncertainty map created by indicator kriging has the advantage of being fixed at time, that is, the uncertainty is the same for any return period, and can also support the decision about the major errors; and important application of the variation coefficient uncertainty map (%) in the decision making for future studies with maximum precipitation events.