The possible relationship between the oceanic circulation in the Southeast Brazilian Continental Shelf and the extremes of commercial sardine landings, between 1980 and 2007, were investigated using an hydrodynamical model (ROMS), an Individual Based Model (Ichythyop). Simulations were compared with remote sensing data for model validation. Two spawning experiments, one random and another using spawning zones, were performed for years with extreme fish landing records, in order to track these individuals and analyze the impact of the environmental conditions on the larval survival. Results show no significant differences between extreme sardine landings, years of maxima and minima, both for death by temperature and by advection, at 5% significance level. However, temperature mortality was significantly higher than mortality losses by advection for the studied period.