FUTURE FIRE PROBABILITY IN THE AMAZON UNDER CLIMATE AND LAND-USE CHANGE

Climate and land-use changes are expected to influence future fire regime in the Amazon. We combined regional land-use projections and climatic data from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble to investigate the probability of fire occurrence by the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) in the Brazilian and Bolivian Amazon. Under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario combined with a land-use scenario based on the depletion of natural resources, the area with fire relative probability (FRP) ≥ 0.3 (a threshold chosen based on the literature) increases by 54%. Areas with a negative change in FRP are projected in the South and South-eastern of both Brazilian and Bolivian Amazon, but only 10% of the study area shows a decrease in FRP ≥ 0.3. The projected overall increase in FRP in the Amazon will likely threaten its inhabitants health, livelihood and important ecosystems services, including the regions' biodiversity and carbon stocks.