MODELING FUTURE HYDROLOGICAL CHANGES IN THE AMAZON BASIN UNDER A DEFORESTATION SCENARIO

The Amazon River Basin (ARB) has been losing forest cover, approximately 17% has been lost in the last 50 years, impacting the hydrological cycle, and altering the water flows of its main tributaries. This study aimed to model the hydrological trends in the main tributaries of the Amazon, considering the potential effects of projected deforestation. For this purpose, hydrological modeling was used to simulate the flows of the ARB by twin numerical experiments. It was observed that the changes in flows are significant, totaling a reduction of more than 10,000 m³/s in the main stretch of the Amazon River, with spatially heterogeneous impacts and distinct hydrological responses, ranging from increases in the northern basins to reductions in the southern basins.