RURAL LETHAL VIOLENCE IN PERNAMBUCO: DATA ANALYTICS-BASED APPROACHES FOR SPATIAL DECISION

This study presents evidence on lethal violence across Pernambuco's rural-urban continuum. Using 19,874 georeferenced homicide records (2017-2022), census-tract socioeconomic indicators, land-use data, and spatial-statistical models, the study examines spatiotemporal patterns and structural correlates of homicide in six regions. Findings indicate distinct patterns: urban violence linked to gangs and drugs coexists with rural profiles marked by interpersonal conflict, contract killings, and greater use of bladed weapons in remote areas. Homicides are concentrated at night and on weekends, whereas seasonal differences are weak. Hotspot analysis and negative binomial models underscore the relevance of the young male population, deprivation, and border effects. The evidence challenges urban-centric criminology theories and supports context-sensitive public safety strategies for heterogeneous territories.