RISK ANALYSIS OF OFFSHORE OIL PRODUCTION PROJECTS UNDER THE PRODUCTION SHARING REGIME

This study analyzes the economic viability of offshore projects under the sharing regime, quantifying risks and identifying critical variables that affect NPV and IRR. The model combines stochastic modeling of reversion to the mean of the price of oil, production curves with exponential decline, among other parameters, using market data, when available. The results were analyzed by means of Sensitivity Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Results indicate that pre-salt projects, with high-productivity fields, remain attractive under current market conditions, with NPV and IRR indicating economic viability, with low probability of negative returns. The high sensitivity of NPV and IRR to the price of oil and the percentage of oil profit destined to the Federal Government stands out.