Prioritization of complementary projects in mature oil fields: a comparative analysis between the criterion of mathematical hope and a medium-risk approach of Markowitz

Prioritizing complementary projects in mature oil fields involves decisions at risk, influenced by market scenarios, costs and availability of operating resources. This article compares the criterion of mathematical hope with a Markowitz-inspired mean-risk approach, based on the ratio of hope to standard deviation. Four hypothetical projects were evaluated by Net Present Value (NPV) in three scenarios: weak, medium and strong. The mathematical hope selects Project A, while the medium-risk approach indicates Project C as the best alternative among the projects subject to variability. Project D, with zero standard deviation, constitutes a deterministic alternative and cannot be directly ordered by the reason that determined the ranking. However, its stability may make it preferable for strongly risk-averse decision-makers. The results show that the adopted criterion and the risk aversion profile significantly influence the prioritization of alternatives.