Predictive Modeling of Vehicular Air Emissions Using IPF-Based 3D Fleet Reconstruction: A Case Study of Rio de Janeiro

This study develops a predictive framework applied to estimate vehicular atmospheric emissions in the Municipality of Rio de Janeiro under alternative technological compositions of the fleet. The contribution consists of the integration between the three-dimensional Iterative Proportional Adjustment, used to reconstruct the joint distribution of the fleet from marginal public data by vehicle type, fuel and decade of manufacture, and vehicle emissions inventory parameters. The reconstructed distribution for 2005–2022 is combined with use intensity, fleet survivability, and emission factors, allowing for disaggregated estimates by cell. The model is calibrated with the official inventory of the State Institute of the Environment and applied to project emissions of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter from exhaust between 2023 and 2029, under baseline and electrification scenarios. The results indicate limited reductions in the short term and demonstrate the applicability of the framework at the municipal scale with marginal public data.