Multi-Agent Simulation for the Evaluation of Dengue Vaccination Campaigns in Guaratiba, Rio de Janeiro

Dengue is one of the most relevant arboviral diseases in Brazil, causing recurrent epidemics and imposing a significant burden on public health systems. In this context, vaccination strategies emerge as a promising alternative to mitigate disease transmission. This work proposes a Multi-Agent Based Simulation model to represent dengue propagation in the Guaratiba neighborhood, located in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, aiming to evaluate the impact of different vaccination campaigns. The model incorporates human, mosquito, egg, and breeding-site agents to represent transmission dynamics within a real geographic environment. Parameter calibration was performed using observed epidemiological data and multiple scenarios were simulated by varying vaccine efficacy and vaccination coverage. Results indicate that both vaccine efficacy and population coverage significantly influence case reduction, with stronger effects observed in scenarios involving high coverage and more effective vaccines.