MODELING THE DEMAND FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORT BY URBAN BUS THROUGH HYBRID SIMULATION

Urban mobility requires tools capable of representing individual behaviors and operational dynamics of public transport. This study aimed to calibrate the proportion of effective users of public transport by bus in the municipality of Passos/MG through a hybrid simulation model developed in AnyLogic. The model integrated Discrete Event Simulation, Agent-Based Simulation, synthetic population, origin-destination matrix and georeferenced data of the urban road network. Actual shipment data per line and user profile, collected between August and November 2025, were used to calibrate probabilities of choosing the mode of transport by automatic routine to minimize errors. The best solution indicated probabilities of using the bus of 4.0% for workers, 5.0% for students and 14.9% for the elderly. The results demonstrate the potential of hybrid modeling as a tool to support planning and decision-making in urban public transport systems.