Decision Support Model for Bovine Transaction Timing

Marketing uncertainty compromises the profitability of beef cattle farming. This work proposes a decision support model to determine optimal times for purchasing and selling cattle in Bandeirantes, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil, using the Production Scale methodology. The mathematical modeling considered climatic seasonality and its impact on pasture availability and market prices, identifying a positive correlation between rainfall volumes and arroba appreciation, explained by strategic herd retention and logistical constraints in the rainy season. The study integrated biological herd growth variables with financial and operational constraints, ensuring cash flow liquidity and compliance with carrying capacity. The tool, flexible regarding different initial parameters defined by the user, allowed for the simulation of scenarios that optimize economic results. It is concluded that the quantitative approach validates the synchronization between biological and financial cycles, offering a robust solution for efficient management in semi-confinement systems.