APPLICATION OF MULTICRITERIA METHODS IN DECISION SUPPORT FOR EMERGENCY RESCUE SITUATIONS AND RECOVERY OF FACILITIES OF INTEREST TO THE BRAZILIAN NAVY

Vol 57, 2025 - 340634
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Abstract

Military Organizations of the Brazilian Navy (BN) may become targets of terrorists or Public Order Disturbance Agents (PODA) who illegally confine personnel after invading their facilities. The continuous improvement of Special Operations planning to recover facilities and rescue confined personnel is of strategic interest to the BN. This paper proposes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), structured through the Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) method, as a decision support tool for comparing Courses of Action (COA) in SRRG-SpecOps emergency planning. A fictional hostage scenario demonstrates the model's capability to incorporate decision-maker preferences transparently, with the criteria structure elicited from qualified Special Operations personnel and all seven judgment matrices satisfying Saaty's consistency threshold. Sensitivity analysis identifies the inversion threshold of every criterion, showing that the recommended solution withstands at least a 9.5 percentage-point displacement in any criterion weight, providing the commander a quantified decision map rather than a single-point recommendation.

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Institutions
  • 1 Marinha do Brasil
  • 2 Universidade Federal do Rio Grande
  • 3 Universidade Federal do Rio Grande | (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande)
Track
  • SE-PODMAR – Special Session on Operational Research in Defense and Maritime Power
Keywords
Special Operations
Multicriteria Decision Analysis
Analytic Hierarchy Process
Emergency Situations
Courses of Action