Survival analysis of Electrical Power Distribution systems using Weibull Regression

Critical infrastructures are systems present in our society, which interfere in several ways when they do not operate in their normal conditions. Electric Power Distribution systems are an example of critical infrastructure, and therefore, the study of the common factors that affect its performance has great relevance. The concept of time-to-event makes it possible to use survival analyses to estimate the influence of different dangers on the reliability of systems. In this study, a Weibull distribution was used to implement a Weibull regression. Using climate data and information about failures of a Brazilian Electrical Power Distribution System, allowing verification of how climatic events impact this type of critical infrastructure. The results demonstrate how the probability of proper functioning of the system given certain climatic conditions, indicating the effect of such exogenous covariates. With greater awareness of potential threats, better planning for threat mitigation and increase the system reliability is possible.