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Bovine dairy products are widely accepted; however, goat dairy products are nutritionally superior and are even used as a source of probiotics. In this context, predictive microbiology intents to estimate the microbial growth and ratify functional properties by characterizing Lactic Acid Bacteria (LAB), which confer a bioconservative differential to dairy products. This study aimed to mathematically evaluate the growth of LAB in a raw goat’s milk cheese developed with (Q1) and without (Q2) the addition of a probiotic culture of Lactobacillus acidophilus (DELVO®PROLAFTI L10 1u GLOBALFOOD). For this purpose, these cheeses were produced and LAB counts were performed weekly for 35 days of storage at 6,0 ± 2,0ºC. With the data, mathematical adjustments were realized to obtain the growth parameters of Baranyi and Roberts model (BAR) and the results were statistically analyzed. From LAB count, were obtained logarithmic quantities between 6 to 7 logCFU/g at the lag phase and up to 12 logCFU/g at the exponential phase, indicating functional potential for the cheeses. Well-adjusted growth curves were obtained (R²>0,990), with R² of 0,994 and 0,993, for cheeses Q1 and Q2, respectively. With the adjustments, it was noticed that there was lower lag phase duration (λ) and higher LAB growth rate (μ) in Q2 (λ=5.136 and μ=0.224) than in Q1 (λ=5.443 and μ=0.158), justified by the presence of only microorganisms of endogenous raw goat milk microbiota in Q2, with natural adaptation and without microbiological competition. Therefore, it was noted that the addition of Lactobacillus acidophilus was not relevant for the production of this cheese, considering that the cheese Q2 was richer in probiotics and consequently more effective in maintaining these bioconservatives microorganisms over 35 days.
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