Burning In Pantanal Driven By Wetland Degradation And Lower Precipitation

The Brazilian Pantanal, renowned for its diverse ecosystems, faces escalating threats due to increasingly intense fires. These fires threaten the region's ecology, diverse wildlife, and ability to store and hold carbon. Extreme fires of 2020 ravaged approximately 4 million ha, underscoring the urgent need to understand the Pantanal's vulnerability to fires and find ways to protect it and its carbon stores.

Using the FLAME model, we assess Pantanal's vulnerability to fire from climate and land cover changes. Our findings reveal that changing precipitation patterns constitute a significant fire driver. Wetland cover is a mitigating factor in some regions, with a doubled wetland extent halving the rainfall amount where we see extreme burning levels. The ongoing reduction of wetlands from agricultural expansion and water management poses a significant challenge, making the Pantanal more vulnerable to burning. The 2020 fires were caused by much of the Pantanal crossing a threshold of wetland extent and precipitation and would have likely not been as severe without previous years' wetland degradation.

Our study underscores the urgency of incorporating wetland cover information and climate extremes into the Pantanal fire management strategies and conservation efforts. It has implications for carbon resilience to fire and climate change and for preserving Pantanal's ecosystem integrity. Our approach facilitates the rapid assessment of potential burning scenarios and supports early preparation and response strategies, crucial for safeguarding this unique ecosystem.