Quiescence and its effects in the Aedes Aegypti population

Due to the capacity of several species of mosquitoes to carry vector-borne diseases, several models, including those composed of systems of differential equations, have been developed to describe its population dynamics. It is known that in the presence of adverse weather conditions, Aedes Aegypti mosquitoes employ a survival strategy called quiescence, in which, once their eggs dry up, development stops to maintain viability for periods lasting up to several months. Although quiescence allows a prolonged likelihood of survival for mosquito eggs, quiescence can also negatively affect mosquito development [3]. In this work, we incorporate the effects of quiescence into a population model. The proposed model, covers female mosquito populations. This model is divided into four phases of mosquito development: Eggs (E), Larvae (L), Pupae (P), and Mature adults (M). To measure changes in the viability of mosquito eggs due to quiescence’s effects, we introduce a factor ϵ = αe^(−βτ) to the egg hatching rate; where τ is the number of continuous days in which the precipitation is less than a specific amount. To visualize the effects of quiescence on the mosquito population multiple scenarios are analyzed and they show that  quiescence allows the population to persist in adverse conditions, but this ability has limits since, in long periods of drought, the population decreases. In further work, it is possible to establish a precipitation threshold based on empirical data linking rainfall patterns to mosquito capture rates, this would allow for a more accurate analysis of factors affecting mosquito behavior.