Exploring the relationship between student attitude toward Mathematics and Mathematics achievement in the United Arab Emirates: A latent profile analysis of TIMSS 2019

Abstract Proficiency in mathematics is fundamental for individuals and nations, impacting daily life and societal advancement. As the United Arab Emirates (UAE) transitions toward a more knowledge-based economy, the Ministry of Education (MOE) prioritizes international large-scale assessments (ILSAs) in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) to inform policy and improve educational practices, particularly in curriculum development and evidence-based decision-making (Reynolds et al., 2024). In addition, ILSAs provides insights that may indirectly support improvements in teaching and learning methods. The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) has consistently shown that UAE eighth-grade students performed below the international average in mathematics subtest (e.g., TIMSS 2011, 2015, 2019), emphasizing the need to investigate factors influencing mathematics achievement (MA). Prior research (e.g., Wardat et al., 2023; Ayebale et al., 2020; Kele, 2018) has identified attitudes toward mathematics as one of the significant factors that notably influence mathematics achievement. However, findings have been inconsistent (e.g., Köller et al., 2001; Papanastasiou, 2020), and research employing person-centered methods, such as Latent Profile Analysis (LPA), remains limited, particularly in examining the relationship between attitudes and achievement in the UAE (e.g., Hwang & Son, 2021; Berger et al., 2020). LPA is a latent variable modeling technique used to detect hidden subpopulations (i.e., profiles) of individuals with similar characteristics within a larger population. Recently, this approach has gained increasing attention in education research. This study applies LPA to identify distinct latent profiles of students’ attitudes toward mathematics among UAE eighth-grade students who participated in TIMSS 2019, and examines how these profiles relate to mathematics achievement. While previous studies have predominantly relied on variable-centered methods, LPA enables the classification of subgroups based on shared attitudinal patterns, offering a more nuanced understanding of how attitudes relate to academic performance. This study addresses two research questions: 1) How many latent profiles of students' attitudes toward mathematics can be identified among UAE eighth-grade students in TIMSS 2019? 2) How are these identified profiles associated with mathematics achievement as measured by the TIMSS 2019 mathematics subtest? Students' attitudes toward mathematics were measured using three indicators from the TIMSS 2019 student questionnaire: liking learning mathematics (LM), valuing mathematics (VM), and confidence in mathematics (CM). Latent profile models with one to six groups were estimated, with model-data fit assessed using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Sample-Adjusted BIC (SABIC), likelihood ratio tests, entropy, and profile sample sizes. The analysis was conducted using Mplus 8.8 (Muthén & Muthén, 1998–2017). To compute mathematics achievement for each detected profile, IEA International Database (IDB) Analyzer 5.0 was used to account for the TIMSS complex sampling design and five plausible values for estimated mathematics performance (IEA, 2020). Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was also performed in SPSS 30.0 to examine mathematics achievement differences across the identified profiles, while controlling for teachers’ instructional clarity and home resources. Key Findings The LPA identified four distinct profiles of student attitudes toward mathematics; Very Positive (8.05%), Positive (21.95%), Neutral (61.93%), and Very Negative (8.07%). The majority of students fell into the Neutral category, while fewer exhibited strongly positive or negative attitudes toward mathematics. The analysis further revealed a positive relationship between attitudinal profiles and mathematics achievement. Students in the Very Positive profile, characterized by high levels of enjoyment (LM = 12.96), value (VM = 12.15), and confidence in mathematics (CM = 15.04), achieved the highest mathematics scores (MA = 523.25). In contrast, students in the Very Negative profile, who reported low levels of enjoyment (LM = 6.86), value (VM = 7.35), and confidence (CM = 8.03), had the lowest mathematics scores (MA = 438.04). The results suggest that students with more positive attitudes toward mathematics tend to outperform their peer in neutral or negative perceptions of the subject. This association was statistically significant even after controlling for teachers' instructional clarity and home resources. Implications and Future Research These findings highlight the critical role of students’ attitudes in shaping mathematics achievement. Identifying latent subpopulations based on attitudes toward mathematics enables educators to design targeted instructional strategies and interventions that foster student engagement and motivation. From a policy and practice perspective, schools should implement attitude-enhancing initiatives, particularly for students classified in the Neutral and Very Negative profiles, as they may benefit the most from the targeted support programs. Future research should explore additional variables from student, teacher, and school background questionnaires to better understand the factors shaping these latent profiles. Furthermore, conducting comparative studies with high-performing TIMSS nations with educational systems similar to the UAE could provide insights into cultural and educational differences that influence student attitudes and mathematics achievement. References Ayebale, L., Habaasa, G., and Tweheyo, S. (2020). Factors Affecting Students’ Achievement in Mathematics in Secondary Schools in Developing Countries: A rapid systematic review. Statistical Journal of the IAOS, 36, 73–76. Berger, N., Mackenzie, E., & Holmes1, K. (2020). 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