TEMPORARY AID, LASTING CHOICES? REPRODUCTIVE RESPONSES TO AN EMERGENCY AID PROGRAM DURING COVID-19.

This study examines the impact of Brazil’s emergency cash transfer program, Auxilio Emergencial, on women’s reproductive trajectories during the COVID-19 pandemic. While financial aid played a crucial role in mitigating the economic consequences of the crisis, its demographic effects—particularly on fertility—remain insufficiently understood. Existing evidence on cash transfer programs is inconclusive, especially regarding temporary interventions implemented under conditions of high uncertainty. Using longitudinal data from the DZC Project, a panel survey on women’s reproductive lives in Pernambuco, this study investigates whether exposure to Auxilio Emergencial influenced fertility outcomes in the short and medium term, whether these effects are concentrated in the timing rather than the quantum of fertility, and whether they vary according to the duration of program exposure. The analysis integrates three dimensions of reproductive behavior—outcomes, intentions, and contraceptive practices—and applies a set of complementary estimation strategies to address potential biases, including sample selection, nonresponse, and endogenous program participation. Inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) is used to obtain doubly robust estimates of treatment effects. The results indicate that longer exposure to emergency aid is associated with a lower probability of childbirth in the short term, suggesting that income support reduced immediate economic pressures that might otherwise accelerate childbearing. However, no significant effects are observed in the medium term, indicating that the program did not alter overall fertility levels. Additional analyses show that temporary assistance increased the likelihood of repeated revisions in fertility intentions, while sustained support contributed to greater stability. No consistent effects are found for contraceptive behavior. Overall, the findings suggest that Auxilio Emergencial influenced reproductive decisions primarily by shifting fertility timing rather than its level. These results contribute to the literature on fertility under uncertainty and provide evidence on the demographic implications of short-term social protection policies in middle-income contexts.