MULTIDIMENSIONAL UNCERTAINTY AND THE TRANSITION TO PARENTHOOD IN THE UK: AN ANALYSIS THROUGH CRISES

European societies have experienced postponement of the first child over the past decades, a trend increasingly associated with rising uncertainty. Uncertainty may lead individuals to delay long-term commitments such as parenthood, particularly when it affects multiple domains of life. While previous research has focused on objective indicators of labour market, uncertainty encompasses housing characteristics and individuals’ subjective perceptions of their own future and current situation. Moreover, these dimensions might overlap, creating a different level of uncertainty that remains insufficiently explored in demographic research. The United Kingdom (UK) is an interesting context to study this link between fertility postponement and uncertainty, a context characterized by a welfare state market-oriented and prone to means-tested benefits. Using data from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (2009–2025), we follow childless individuals aged 18–45 over time to examine their transition to parenthood. We construct three dimensions of uncertainty: (1) income and employment, (2) housing conditions, and (3) subjective perceptions. Each dimension is measured through multiple indicators and combined into composite indices capturing varying degrees of uncertainty. Discrete-time logistic regression models are used to estimate the effects of these dimensions, separately and jointly, on first birth transitions. It is expected that higher levels of uncertainty to be associated with delayed entry into parenthood, with variation in magnitude across dimensions. Importantly, we hypothesize that overlapping forms of uncertainty will have a stronger effect than each dimension considered independently. These effects are also expected to differ across population groups, particularly by gender. Although the impact of uncertainty is expected to be stronger during both the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic periods, these effects are also expected to persist. This would suggest that part of the association between uncertainty and postponement of the first child reflects a structural change rather than purely temporary shocks in fertility.