DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF YOUTH LABOUR MARKET TRANSITIONS IN BOTSWANA AND BRAZIL

Youth unemployment remains a persistent structural challenge across the Global South, yet its demographic and labour market dynamics vary significantly between national contexts. This article presents a comparative analysis of youth unemployment in Botswana and Brazil, drawing on master's dissertation research on Botswana—which critically examined the structural barriers perpetuating joblessness among Batswana youth—and extending the analysis to Brazil. According to World Bank data (2025), youth unemployment in Botswana reached 46%, while Brazil recorded 14 % for the same period. Despite this numerical disparity, both countries share underlying structural features: high informal employment rates, persistent gender disparities (with young women experiencing significantly higher unemployment in both contexts), and an economic development model that has historically failed to generate sufficient formal employment for rapidly growing youth cohorts. Using a Keynesian theoretical lens—which critiques neoclassical explanations that over-emphasize individual skills mismatches—this article argues that demographic transitions alone do not determine youth employment outcomes. Rather, the interaction between demographic pressures and institutional factors, including labour market regulation, active labour market policies, and the productive structure of the economy, produces distinct unemployment regimes. The Brazilian case offers instructive lessons for Botswana, especially regarding the expansion of conditional cash transfer programmes, formalization of informal workers, and the strategic role of state-owned enterprises in generating decent employment. The article concludes with policy recommendations emphasizing that addressing youth unemployment as a structural phenomenon requires integrated approaches linking demographic data collection, labour market programming, industrial diversification, and social protection expansion.