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Simulação de Mudanças de Uso e Cobertura da terra de 2010 a 2050 no Vale do Paraíba – Trecho Paulista

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Landscape changes are largely related to urban and industrial growth. In the “Vale do Paraíba paulista” this situation is not different: economic activities like forestry, for example, change the landscape every year . Multitemporal studies allowed us to find out how and where silviculture of eucalyptus, largely moved to attend the demands of pulp and paper industries, growths in the Vale do Paraíba. In our study, we find that the two land use classes most converted to eucalyptus were the Atlantic Forest and pasture. The main product of silviculture at Paraíba Valley – 92,4%, of the total produced - is roundwood. On such evidence, this study proposes the construction of simulation models of land use and cover change during 40 years, from 2010 to 2050, based on observation of transitions that have occurred in the past, between 2000 and 2005. The methodology used is divided into three main processes: (a) calibration, (b) validation and (c) simulation, which are carried out on the platform of environmental modeling Dinamica- Ego. The results show growth trends of forestry ( eucalyptus), mainly on area of pastures and forest regeneration in the study area.These results are an ancillary data for environmental planning and management; and an efficient tool to support public policies focusing the equilibrium between economic development and environment.