Estimating and forecasting annual bilateral migration flows between South America and Europe, 1986-2050

South America and Europe have a history of changes in the direction of migration. In the 20th century, South America experienced an increase in European immigration followed by a decrease. By contrast, Europe has witnessed surges in migration from South America over the past thirty years, with some exceptions following the 2008 economic crisis and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Numerous studies highlight the importance of migration between South America and Europe for both regions and propose the existence of a migration system. To evaluate the significance of this system and its contributing factors, data on migration flows are crucial. Migration flow data allow the measurement of evolving migration patterns between origins and destinations and the analysis of whether these patterns respond to specific contextual conditions or structural changes.

Nevertheless, current data on migration flows between South America and Europe is inadequate, often incomplete and spanning long periods (e.g. five years) that fail to capture short-term fluctuations and variations in migration between the two regions that can be seen, e.g. in annual values. Thus, this study aims (1) to estimate a reliable, complete, comparable and consistent time series of annual bilateral migration flows between South America and Europe from 1985 to 2021 and (2) to conditional forecast these flows until 2050. The resulting estimates are based on one- and five-year transition census data, which provide the most reliable, comprehensive, comparable, and consistent information on migration flows. The resulting estimates are obtained by implementing a two-level hierarchical Bayesian model that enables the integration of multiple data sources on migration flows, accounting for differences in two-time intervals (one and five years) and addressing measurement errors in census data with uncertainty measures.