Comparisons of counterfactual affirmative action policies at the Federal University of Minas Gerais

Tertiary education attendance in Brazil varies remarkably among different population groups. In order to decrease inequalities and increase the proportion of minorities in public universities, many institutions of higher education in Brazil have implemented affirmative action policies since the 2000s. The main objective of this paper was to analyze different counterfactual affirmative action policies at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) based on simulations, measuring the proportion of minorities and the level of academic performance at this institution under each scenario. The current quota policy of 50% for students from public secondary schools, divided between four main groups (non-poor/non-minority; poor/non-minority; non-poor/minority; poor/minority), was shown to be well-designed to promote higher proportions of minorities among the student body. However, if academic performance is also taken into account, the best options would be either a quota policy of 50% divided between poor and non-poor students or a bonus policy based on a linear function of course competitiveness with a mean bonus of 6%.