FUTURE OF AMAZONIAN FORESTS: MODELING DEFORESTATION AND DEGRADATION BY 2050 IN BOCA DO ACRE

Tropical forests play an important role in regulating the global climate, maintaining biodiversity, and supporting local livelihoods. Nevertheless, they are significant sources of carbon dioxide emissions due to deforestation and human activities. This study simulates the projected deforestation and forest degradation in Boca do Acre, Brazil, until 2050, driven by logging, wildfires, and land clearance for agriculture. Using the BC-DEGRAD model, we analyzed the spatial distribution of land cover change under a single future scenario. Our findings indicate that Boca do Acre is likely to lose approximately 3,800 km² of forest by 2050, with deforestation, fire, and logging impacting distinct land-use classes. This research provides vital insights for policymakers, aiding the development of effective conservation strategies and sustainable development initiatives in the region.