Dynamics and control of vector-borne diseases transmitted by Aedes Aegypti: linking data and modelling

In the last four years, epidemics of distinct arboviroses transmitted by Aedes Aegypti - Yellow Fever, Zika and Chikungunya - have been occurred in Brazil. In 2015 researchers associate microcephaly cases and the Zika epidemics. Theoretical studies are necessary to evaluate quantitative measures of outbreaks’ detection and of vaccination strategies. We compare different dengue outbreaks of Brazilian cities through a mathematical model. We introduce some heterogeneity, as it was done for different serotypes of Dengue viruses, and develop a stochastic version of the model. The heterogeneity was introduced through a partial differential equation model. Numerical methods were used to assess the optimal vaccination age and its confidence age range of ten cities in Brazil. The results reveal complex spatial-temporal patterns associated to the disease transmission, highlighting the heterogeneity in defining the target population for dengue vaccination.