Anales del Congreso ALAP
Anales del X Congreso ALAP

Exposure to violence can affect individuals’ fertility intentions and realisations. While armed conflict has been found to increase fertility, the effect of exposure to violence on fertility preferences is less studied. Intended fertility may increase with violence exposure due to insurance and replacement mechanisms or decrease due to fear of crime and financial hardship.

Since 2006, Mexico experienced an unprecedented surge in drug-related violence caused by a combination of national policies and international influences on drug cartels. This led to substantial increase in homicides, shootings, and other violent acts, with large variation across municipalities. Evidence suggests that the surge in violence reduced births among specific socio-economic groups, leading to selective fertility. However, no study has examined whether violence exposure led to changes in preferences, which are a determinant of observed birth rates.

We link administrative data on monthly homicide rates across Mexican municipalities with individual-level data from the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS) for 8,740 women aged 15-49, collected in the years before and during the surge in violence (2002-2013). Using fixed-effects models, we investigate how changes in violence exposure at municipal level relate to changes in women’s fertility preferences, as measured by the total intended number of children accounting for current parity. We assess heterogeneity by women’s education, and test potential mechanisms explaining the relationship, including fear of victimisation and household economic shocks. Preliminary results suggest that intended fertility declined after violence exposure, especially among women with no children.